Towards Net Zero: Why Forests Are Our Best Allies

Forests, carbon storage, and nature-based solutions

Net zero is often understood as stopping carbon emissions altogether. Scientifically, the concept is more practical: the remaining carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are balanced by the amount of CO₂ removed and stored again, so there is no net addition to the atmosphere. Getting there requires progress on two fronts at the same time: reducing the emissions we release and protecting and enhancing nature’s capacity to absorb them. Forests sit at the heart of both.

The room for action is narrowing. According to the Global Carbon Budget 2025, the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C with a 50 percent probability was only around 170 billion tonnes of CO₂ from the beginning of 2026. That is equivalent to roughly four years of emissions at 2025 levels (Friedlingstein et al., 2026).

Two Sources of Emissions, Two Pathways Forward

Human-caused CO₂ emissions come primarily from two major sources. The first is fossil fuels: in 2025, emissions from fossil fuels were estimated at around 38.1 billion tonnes of CO₂, or approximately 90 percent of total human-caused emissions of 42.2 billion tonnes. The second is land-use change, particularly deforestation. Net emissions from this source averaged around 5 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year during 2015–2024 and were estimated to decline to around 4.1 billion tonnes in 2025, partly due to the end of El Niño conditions (Friedlingstein et al., 2026).

Land-use emissions may be smaller than fossil-fuel emissions, but they cannot be ignored—and the two sources require different solutions. Fossil-fuel emissions must decline through the transition to clean energy. Land-use emissions can be reduced by stopping the degradation of ecosystems that store carbon. With the remaining carbon budget so limited, both pathways must move forward together.

Forests: Carbon Stores and Sources of Emissions

Natural ecosystems are climate allies that work continuously. During 2015–2024, land absorbed around 21 percent of human-caused emissions, while the oceans absorbed around 29 percent. Forests store carbon in their trunks, roots, and soils, while absorbing CO₂ through photosynthesis as they grow.

The opposite happens when forests are cleared or burned: the carbon stored within them can be released back into the atmosphere. Deforestation remains a major driver of gross land-use emissions, accounting for around 1.9 billion tonnes of carbon per year during 2015–2024, equivalent to approximately 7 billion tonnes of CO₂. The encouraging news is that new forest growth and regeneration removed around 1.3 billion tonnes of carbon per year—approximately 4.8 billion tonnes of CO₂—or about two-thirds of deforestation emissions (Friedlingstein et al., 2026). This means that both protecting existing forests and restoring degraded forests can make a meaningful difference.

Indonesia has an important role to play—and it is not always an easy one. During 2015–2024, Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo together accounted for more than half of global CO₂ emissions from land use. The decisions we make about forests therefore have a direct bearing on the world’s ability to reach net zero.

What Are Nature-Based Solutions, and How Much Potential Do They Have?

Nature-based solutions are actions that protect, restore, and sustainably manage ecosystems in ways that benefit both people and nature. A landmark study in this field, Griscom et al. (2017), identified 20 conservation, restoration, and land-management pathways that can increase carbon storage or avoid emissions across forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands.

The study found that natural climate solutions could provide 37 percent of cost-effective CO₂ mitigation needed through 2030 to maintain a greater than 66 percent chance of keeping warming below 2°C. Forest-related pathways accounted for more than two-thirds of this cost-effective nature-based mitigation potential. The benefits extend beyond carbon. When implemented well, many of these actions can also support water purification, flood protection, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and climate resilience.

There are two important caveats. First, nature-based solutions are not a substitute for energy decarbonization. With fossil fuels accounting for around 90 percent of human-caused emissions, the transition to clean energy must continue. Forests absorb and store carbon, while the energy transition reduces the amount of carbon that needs to be absorbed. Second, carbon stored in forests is not permanent. Fires, drought, and land clearing can release it again. Forests therefore need to be protected continuously—not simply planted and then forgotten.

Indonesia’s Policy Direction: FOLU Net Sink 2030

Indonesia has translated this approach into policy through Indonesia’s FOLU (Forestry and Other Land Use) Net Sink 2030. The target is for the forestry and land-use sector to absorb more carbon than it releases, with a net absorption target of around 140 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent by 2030 (Ministry of Forestry of the Republic of Indonesia, 2025). The government has also set a target to reduce the deforestation rate from 0.918 million hectares per year to less than 0.3 million hectares per year (Ministry of Environment, 2025).

This direction continues in Indonesia’s latest climate commitments. On 27 October 2025, Indonesia submitted its Second NDC for the 2031–2035 period to the UNFCCC. The document continues to reference FOLU Net Sink 2030 (Climate Action Tracker, 2025b) and targets carbon absorption from the forestry and land-use sector of 206.8 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent by 2035 (Ministry of Environment, 2025). Observers have noted that achieving this target relies heavily on forest carbon absorption to offset emissions from an energy sector that is still growing (Climate Action Tracker, 2025a). Forests should not become a reason to delay the energy transition.

Targets of this scale require collective action from national and local governments, businesses, and communities. Forests cannot be protected from office buildings alone.

What Can We Do?

• Individuals: Reduce everyday carbon footprints through transportation, electricity use, and consumption choices, and choose wood, paper, and food products that come from deforestation-free supply chains.
• Communities: Take part in planting and caring for trees, including mangroves and peatlands in local areas, and make sure seedlings are maintained until they are established.
• Businesses and institutions: Set measurable emissions-reduction targets, trace the origins of raw materials, and support restoration programmes with transparent monitoring.

Net zero is not a single date on the calendar. It is the result of choices made continuously over time. Reducing fossil-fuel use and protecting forests are two sides of the same effort. With only a few years of the remaining carbon budget, how we use energy and how we treat forests today will help determine whether net zero remains within reach.

References

Climate Action Tracker. (2025a, November). Indonesia: 2035 NDC. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/2035-ndc/

Climate Action Tracker. (2025b). Targets: Indonesia. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/targets/

Friedlingstein, P., dkk. (2026). Global Carbon Budget 2025. Earth System Science Data, 18, 3211–3288. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026

Griscom, B. W., dkk. (2017). Natural climate solutions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(44), 11645–11650. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710465114

Kementerian Kehutanan Republik Indonesia. (2025). Indonesia FOLU Net Sink 2030. https://www.kehutanan.go.id/program/INDONESIA-FOLU-NET-SINK-2030

Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup/Badan Pengendalian Lingkungan Hidup. (2025, 18 Juli). Akhir penyusunan Second Nationally Determined Contribution, Menteri LH: Bukti kesungguhan Indonesia bangun masa depan lindungi bumi. https://kemenlh.go.id/news/detail/akhir-penyusunan-second-nationally-determined-contribution-menteri-lh-bukti-kesungguhan-indonesia-bangun-masa-depan-lindungi-bumi